DATA ANALYTICS PROJECTS

Time Series Forecasting - Prediction of New York Stock Exchange Data in 2022

Goal

The goal is to predict how the value of the stock exchanges of New York will throughout 2022

Result

The result shows that the New York stock exchange value will be predicted to decline from June to August 2021, where the lowest point is less than 10,000. After that, it will tend to increase until it reaches around 20,000 in the middle of 2022

Analytical Approach

Through the Machine Learning approach, I made a time series forecasting to predict data for the next year based on data from the previous time. I used Neural Network algorithm with LSTM architecture for the model training

OVERVIEW

This project is the data analytics project that utilizes time series in predicting the future trend. The dataset used in this project is stock exchange data from 1965 to 2021 with a total of 13,947 samples. Those data only refer to data with index 'NYA'.

New York Open Stock Exchange in USA 1965 - 2021 Time Series.
New York Open Stock Exchange in USA 1965 - 2021 Time Series.

I used the Neuron Network algorithm with LSTM architecture for model training with a total of 31,145 parameters used. I divided the dataset into two parts, the training set and the validation set with a proportion of 80:20.

MAE Plot
MAE Plot

Loss Plot
Loss Plot

Based on the results of model training, the MAE rate obtained was 9.87% with a loss rate of 1.03%. After training the model, it was used to predict the data over the next year. Prediction results are shown in the line graph below.

New York Open Stock Exchange Prediction in 2022
New York Open Stock Exchange Prediction in 2022